Trilogy World Report - September 2018

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EM) entered a bear market on September 6, when it posted a 20% decline from its late-January peak level.  Investor concerns about the impact of U.S. trade policies appear to have taken their toll at a time when financial media have devoted considerable coverage to severe currency crises in countries like Argentina and Turkey.  Together, these issues have raised fears of yet another deep, prolonged, and widespread EM crisis.  Naturally, a key question for EM investors is: how well grounded are such fears?

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Trilogy World Report - July 2018

So far in 2018, investors have witnessed increased stock market volatility, rising geopolitical and trade tensions, and rising interest rates.  Emerging markets (EM) equity performance has been disappointing, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EM) posting a negative total return of -3.0% in US dollar terms through mid-June, compared to a positive return for the developed markets (DM) MSCI World Index of 2.8%.

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TRILOGY World Report - MARCH 2018

With the U.S. economy having reached full employment by many measures, while other major Developed Market (DM) economies are also at or approaching full employment, investors have become concerned that overheating in DM economies will lead to inflation, greater than expected monetary tightening, inverted yield curves, and recessionary conditions that will trigger a severe bear market in DM equities. And if DM equities catch a cold, the fear is that Emerging Market (EM) equities will catch pneumonia.

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