Trilogy World Report - jANUARY 2019

Emerging markets equities came under intense pressure in 2018, as concerns about the impact on global growth of Fed tightening and the U.S.-led trade war intersected with slowing growth in China and currency crises in Argentina and Turkey.  By September, the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index had entered a bear market with a 20% decline from its peak level of January and finished the year with a loss of -14.5% on a total return basis (in U.S. dollars).  In contrast, amid the same challenging environment, the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI World Index of developed market (DM) equities posted losses of -4.4% and -8.2% respectively.

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Trilogy World Report - September 2018

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EM) entered a bear market on September 6, when it posted a 20% decline from its late-January peak level.  Investor concerns about the impact of U.S. trade policies appear to have taken their toll at a time when financial media have devoted considerable coverage to severe currency crises in countries like Argentina and Turkey.  Together, these issues have raised fears of yet another deep, prolonged, and widespread EM crisis.  Naturally, a key question for EM investors is: how well grounded are such fears?

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Trilogy World Report - July 2018

So far in 2018, investors have witnessed increased stock market volatility, rising geopolitical and trade tensions, and rising interest rates.  Emerging markets (EM) equity performance has been disappointing, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EM) posting a negative total return of -3.0% in US dollar terms through mid-June, compared to a positive return for the developed markets (DM) MSCI World Index of 2.8%.

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