TRILOGY WORLD REPORT
ARE EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES THE BEST WAY FOR INVESTORS TO BENEFIT FROM EMERGING MARKET GROWTH? | May 2012
In its recently released World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again pointed to the outlook for economic growth in the emerging economies as a bright spot in an otherwise guarded assessment of global economic prospects. Reflecting a divergence of trend growth rates that has been evident for many years, the IMF is projecting...<full report>
HAS THE EURO-AREA ENTERED A LOST DECADE? | January 2012
Europe appears set to pay a very steep price for design flaws in the euro. How steep a price will depend critically on whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will be able to focus on rapidly re-establishing pro-growth financial conditions, as it has since the December 9, 2011 European Commission economic summit. On the other hand, if political considerations force the ECB to focus on discouraging moral hazard among fiscally challenged member nations and to back away from aggressive monetary easing, then the contraction in economic activity that is currently under way is likely to be significantly more severe than called for in ...<full report>
ARE INVESTORS OVER-ESTIMATING ODDS OF A U.S. RECESSION? | October 2011
Concerns about U.S. Business cycle dynamics seem almost mundane in contrast to the numerous imponderable factors relating to Europe's intertwining sovereign debt and banking crises. That may help explain why the U.S. stock market declined by less than other markets during a dismal September. But in an interdependent global economy, the state of the U.S. economy remains a key driver. If the U.S. economy soon enters recession, as many analysts fear...<full report>
WILL TEPID U.S. GROWTH LEAD TO EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY CRISES? | July 2011
As the U.S. approaches the third anniversary of the Lehman shock of September 15, 2008, the slower-than-average recovery has been broadly in line with the history of recoveries following financial crises around the world. The Unemployment rate remains stubbornly high at over 9%, reflecting a pace of growth that has been remarkably tepid compared to the experience of the past ten recessions... <full report>
The World According to GARP | April 2011
Many investment managers are reluctant to have their investment discipline characterized by various "style boxes" that the investment consulting industry had developed. These boxes include a variety of style labels ranging from the ubiquitous "value" and "growth" to variations such as "deep value" or "momentum" or "growth at a reasonable price" (GARP), and so on. Investment managers are reluctant to be typecast... <full report>
Perspectives on Emerging Market Equities: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly | January 2011
Although global economic conditions remain challenging for residents of the developed nations, one of the pleasant global surprises of the last two years has been the resilience of both emerging market (EM) economies and their financial markets. The idea of economic “decoupling” was frequently derided during the global downturn of late 2008 and early 2009, when virtually every major economy contracted sharply. But since then, booming growth in key emerging market nations like Brazil, China and India have contrasted with tepid growth and high unemployment in the U.S., Japan and much of Europe. Not surprisingly, emerging equity markets have outperformed developed equity markets in the post-crisis period. <full report>