TRILOGY MARKET COMMENTS
February 2012
Global equity markets experienced a strong rally in January as better economic data coincided with supportive policy stances from key central banks. As market participants embraced riskier assets, emerging market equities led the way along with more cyclically driven sectors like materials,...<full report>
January 2012
Global equity markets posted significant gains in the fourth quarter of 2011, but the gains were not enough to offset earlier losses that made for a frustrating year for equity investors. Although the MSCI All Country World Index (“MSCI ACWI”) posted a gain of 7.2% in the fourth quarter, it posted a negative total return of 7.4% for 2011. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index... <full report>
December 2011
After a strong recovery in October, global equity markets swooned again in November as fears mounted that Europe’s debt crisis might spin out of control. Despite some optimism toward the end of the month about the possibility of more proactive monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB), the MSCI All-Country World index posted a negative return of 3.0% for the month of November with the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) index leading the way down with a negative return of 6.7%... <full report>
November 2011
October turned out to be the third-strongest month for global equity markets since 1987 in response to three favorable macroeconomic developments: European policymakers made some progress in developing a plan to restructure peripheral debt and to shore up the banks’ capital; U.S. economic data continued to register positive surprises; and China’s economic data pointed toward continued growth rather than a much-feared “hard landing.” These developments did much to allay fears that the world was headed toward another global recession... <full report>
October 2011
Global equity markets experienced a sharp setback in September as investors continued to cut back on their exposure to equities and commodities against growing concerns that global growth is faltering. Not only have investors been concerned about the possibility of renewed recession in the U.S. and Europe, they have also begun to question the sustainability of expansions in many emerging market nations as well. Such concerns were reflected in negative total returns in September of 9.4% and 14.6% respectively in the MSCI All-Country World Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. <full report>
September 2011
Global equity markets tumbled in August, with the MSCI World Index posting a return of minus 7.0%, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 8.9%. The August setback leaves both indices down for the year by 3.9% and 8.5% respectively. Catalysts for the August decline included the confidence-eroding effects of the U.S. debt-ceiling drama and Standard and Poors downgrade of U.S. debt, together with weak economic data and concerns that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis was spinning out of control. <full report>
August 2011
Political risk dominated global equity markets in recent weeks, with the Eurozone's sovereign debt crisis requiring new containment measures at the same time that deep political divisions in the U.S. unsettled markets by raising the possibility of a technical debt default in August if no compromise were to be reached. The MSCI All-Country World index declined in U.S. dollar terms by 1.6% in July, which put its year-to-date advance at a mediocre 3.0%. <full report>
July 2011
The MSCI All Country World Index ended the second quarter up a modest 0.2%, but the positive result belies the whipsaw nature of trading across equity, bond, currency, and commodity markets during the quarter. A variety of macroeconomic concerns appeared to dominate market swings as investors became alternately optimistic and pessimistic about global economic growth, Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, and the impact of Japan’s triple disaster on global growth and supply chains. <full report>
June 2011
Concerns about a developing soft patch in global economic growth helped trigger modest losses in global equity markets in May, with the MSCI All Country World Index posting a loss of 2.2% for the month. Most core government bond markets rallied during the month as inflation fears subsided along with an easing of commodity prices. <full report>
May 2011
Global equity markets shrugged off confusing economic data and posted relatively robust returns, with the MSCI World Index posting a total return in U.S. dollar terms of 4.3% in April, leaving it up 9.3% for the year-to-date. About one-third of the return in U.S. dollars reflects a broad-based weakening... <full report>
April 2011
Global equity markets registered solid gains in the first quarter as investor perceptions of global growth prospects remained positive, despite concerns about rising inflationary pressures, heightened geopolitical risk, and Japan’s tragic earthquake and tsunami disasters. In U.S. Dollar terms, the MSCI World Index posted a total return of 4.8% for the quarter, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index posted a more subdued gain of 2.0%. In the last few weeks of the quarter, market volatility rose sharply in response to Japan’s natural disaster and the escalating conflict in Libya, with the World Index registering a 7% peak-to-trough correction over the course of several weeks. <full report>
March 2011
Global equity markets posted solid gains again in February, as rising market volatility reflected heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities in 45 nations returned 2.9% including dividends in February, bringing the year-to-date total return to 4.5%. <full report>
February 2011
Global equity markets experienced decidedly mixed performance in the first month of the New Year, with the MSCI World Index gaining 2.3% in January while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 2.7%. Investors in developed markets appeared to be encouraged by mounting evidence that a broad-based acceleration in global economic activity is underway, while investors in emerging markets had to cope with evidence of mounting inflation pressures and a wave of new geopolitical uncertainty emanating from rapidly unfolding events in North Africa. <full report>
January 2011
Despite much angst about a double-dip recession, sovereign debt troubles in Euroland, and ongoing concerns about inflation, deflation, “currency wars,” and the efficacy of quantitative easing, global equity markets generally posted healthy returns in 2010 on the back of a very robust fourth quarter. Outside of Europe, equity markets in all other nations in the MSCI All Country World Index posted positive returns for the year, with the overall index up 8.7% in the fourth quarter and 12.7% for the year. Emerging markets lagged modestly in the fourth quarter but beat developed markets for the year, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 7.3% in the latest quarter and 18.9% for the year. <full report>
December 2010
“Buy the rumor, sell the news” could describe global equity market behavior in recent months. Many markets were up sharply in the August-October periods in anticipation of a new round of quantitative easing (QE2) by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, only to sell off moderately in November as the Fed announced and began to execute a $600 billion asset purchasing exercise. Both the MSCI World and the MSCI All-Country World indexes fell by 2.2% in November, leaving the World and All-Country indexes up for the year to date by 4.1% and 5.0% respectively. <full report>
November 2010
October, “one of the peculiarly dangerous months” according to Mark Twain, turned out to be not so scary at all as the MSCI World Index posted a healthy gain of 3.7% for the month. That brought the year-to-date gain to 6.4% in U.S. dollar terms, roughly equivalent to the year-to-date total return of bonds in many developed nations’ bond markets. In a year characterized by a high correlation between “risk-on, risk-off trades” in currency, bond, commodity, and stock markets, risky assets benefited from <full report>
October 2010
The best September for stocks in seventy years also coincided with the U.S. dollar’s second-worst monthly performance in two decades, with the MSCI World Index having posted a total return of 9.3% for the month while the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index fell by 4%. In a year which has been characterized by large sentiment swings between “risk-on” and “risk-off,” market participants appear to have embraced the risk-on trade in September with great enthusiasm. <full report>
September 2010
After posting strong gains in July, global equity markets faltered again in August as investors reacted to discouraging economic data that raised fears of renewed recession in key economies like the U.S. and Japan. Reflecting these concerns, the MSCI World Index posted a decline of 3.7% in U.S. dollar terms in August, leaving it down 6.2% for the year to date. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fared somewhat better in August by declining only 1.9%. Although emerging equity markets have still been buffeted by global macroeconomic concerns this year, they have provided a modest diversification benefit to global equity investors by delivering roughly flat performance for the year to date. <full report>
August 2010
Global equity markets staged an impressive rebound in July, with the MSCI World Index rising by 8.1% in U.S. dollar terms even as the U.S. dollar gave back some of its gains from earlier in the year. Both developed and emerging markets benefitted from resurgence in risk appetite as investors responded favorably to banking stress tests in Europe backed by considerable public-sector support. Unsurprisingly, the European exercise showed that only seven out of ninety one banks failed the easy-to-pass tests. <full report>
July 2010
Global equity markets experienced a sharp correction in the second quarter as safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds posted solid gains. After posting a modestly positive return in the first quarter of 2010, the MSCI World Index slipped by 12.7% in the second quarter as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis intensified while concerns also mounted about the sustainability of China’s economic boom. The second quarter selloff leaves the World Index down 9.8% for the year to date. <full report>
June 2010
Until very recently we have been reasonably optimistic about global growth prospects for 2010 and 2011, but recent severe financial shocks from Europe have now clouded the outlook. Although most consensus economic forecasts continue to call for global economic growth of more than 4% in both 2010 and 2011, risks of a considerably weaker outcome will grow if international policy makers are not able to engineer a significant improvement in financial conditions.. <full report>
May 2010
Global equity markets offered decidedly mixed performance in April as attention centered on whether Greece was headed toward a default on its sovereign debt. Fears of contagion effects from a possible Greek default created downdrafts for other European equity markets like France, Portugal, and Spain. But outside Europe, many other major markets fared relatively well, with the U.S. market posting a 1.6% gain for the month. <full report>
April 2010
After a rocky start, global equity markets posted healthy gains in the first quarter of 2010, with the MSCI World Index up 3.2% in U.S. dollar terms while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 2.4%. Those indexes rose by 6.2% and 8.1% respectively in March, erasing losses that had been posted earlier in the year as investors worried about Chinese monetary tightening, a fiscal crisis in Greece, and uncertainty over U.S. growth and economic policy prospects. <full report>
March 2010
Global equity markets staged a modest recovery in February after starting off the first few weeks of 2010 with weak performance. The MSCI World index posted a positive total return of 1.4% in February, which left in down 2.8% for the year to date. The MSCI Emerging Markets posted a more lackluster return of 0.4% in February, which left the index down by 5.2% for the year to date.<full report>
February 2010
After many months of strong performance, global equity markets exhibited broad-based weakness in January with the MSCI World and Emerging Markets indices falling by 4.1% and 5.6% respectively. Three developments in particular appeared to trigger the pullback:<full report>
January 2010
Despite recent jitters in response to Dubai’s debt crisis and Greece’s fiscal problems, global equity markets posted solid returns in December with the MSCI World Index posting a total return of 2% for the month. That brought the total return for 2009 to 30% following a volatile ride with the index down 25% early in the year followed by a rise of 73% from the low hit in early March. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index also continued to perform well in December, posting a total return of 4% for the month and bringing its total return for the year to a robust 78%. <full report>
December 2009
Global equity markets generally posted robust gains in November, despite a month-end financial sector scare triggered by news that Dubai World would seek to restructure up to $59 billion of its debt. The MSCI World Index generated a total return of 4.1% in U.S. dollar terms in November, bringing its year-to-date rise to 27.7%. <full report>
November 2009
After rising in seven of the past eight months, global equity markets posted modest losses in October while commodities pulled back and the U.S. dollar rose. After rising more than 60% from its bottom in early March in U.S. dollar terms, the MSCI World Index fell by 1.8% in October but remains up nearly 23% for the year to date.<full report>
October 2009
Global equity markets have posted gains during five of the past six months, with the MSCI World Index gaining 4% in September and 17% for the quarter. The World Index has posted a two-quarter advance of 42%, which is the biggest two-quarter advance since the inception of the World Index in 1974. Even with that recovery, the index remains roughly 33% below its peak level in October 2007 after having plunged nearly 60% during the global financial crisis. <full report>
September 2009
Positive economic news flow continued to support global equity markets in August, although China’s market was a potentially important exception to the generally positive trend. The MSCI World Index posted a healthy gain of 4.1% in August, bringing the year-to-date gain to 20.1% in U.S. dollar terms. In contrast, after posting a year-to-date gain of more than 51% through July, the MSCI Emerging Markets index slipped 0.4% during August based largely on weakness in China and the financial sector.<full report>
August 2009
After faltering in June, global equity markets posted robust gains in July of 8.5% and 11.2% respectively in U.S. dollar terms for the MSCI World index and the MSCI Emerging Markets index. That brings total returns for the year to date of 15.4% and 51.3% respectively for the two indexes following last year’s sharp declines. Equity markets continued to be supported by positive developments in credit markets amid numerous signs that the global economy was beginning to recover from the sharp credit crunch that was triggered by Lehman’s bankruptcy last September.<full report>
July 2009
After posting exceptionally strong gains in April and May as fears of economic Armageddon faded, global equity markets experienced more choppy trading conditions in June and declined modestly. Many of the strongest financial market trends of recent months such as rising bond yields and commodity prices also were reversed in June, with resource-sensitive markets like Russia experiencing sharp corrections after posting stellar gains earlier this year.<full report>
June 2009
Global equity markets powered ahead in May with the MSCI All-Country World Index rising by about 10% during the month in U.S. dollar terms at the same time that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 17%. After a disastrous start to the year, the strong recovery in markets since mid-March now leaves the MSCI All-Country World Index up for the year to date by 9.8% and the MSCI Emerging Index up by 37.9%. Against widespread fears earlier this year that the world economy was headed for Great Depression II.<full report>
May 2009
Global equity markets enjoyed strong returns for the second consecutive month in April, with the MSCI World Index rising by 11.2% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 16.6%. Although trailing economic data from the first quarter generally continued to be grim, market participants have been encouraged by supportive government policy measures and evidence from around the world that the pace of economic contraction is abating.<full report>
April 2009
Looking back at the first quarter, it is difficult to recall a time when we have seen such deep and broad-based downward revisions to the outlook for global economic growth. In the wake of the Lehman bankruptcy last fall, the severe impairment of financial intermediation in general and trade finance in particular led to a sharp and immediate decline in global economic activity that appears to have continued through the first quarter of 2009. In response to such weakness, international forecasting agencies are now expecting...<full report>
March 2009
Economic data released in February has been stunningly grim and global equity markets have responded accordingly. The MSCI World index declined 10.2% in U.S. dollar terms during the month. That put the year-to-date return at minus 18.1% following abysmal performance in 2008.<full report>
February 2009
Global equity markets plunged once again in January in response to dismal reports on economic activity from around the world and increasing concerns about the solvency of major banks. It now appears that industrial activity across the world collapsed at an estimated annual pace of nearly...<full report>
January 2009
After plunging from mid-September to late-November in the wake of the Lehman bankruptcy shock, global equity markets finally showed signs of stabilizing in the last few weeks of 2008. In U.S. dollars, the MSCI World index finished the year nearly 20% above its low posted in November. But that represents small comfort... <full report>
December 2008
The global economic crisis continued in November as evidence of plunging consumer and business confidence mounted around the world. Most major equity markets posted new crisis lows during the month while long-term interest rates declined sharply as investors sought safety in government bonds. Commodity prices have remained under pressure in response to weakening demand in both developed and emerging market nations. <full report>
November 2008
The domino effects of the mid-September Lehman Brothers bankruptcy continued with a vengeance in October, as the crisis spread to European banks, commodity markets and currency markets. <full report>
October 2008
The third quarter was a tumultuous period for global equity markets, with the failure of Lehman Brothers in mid-September creating massive strains in global credit markets against the backdrop of faltering growth in most major economies. <full report>
September 2008
August marked the third consecutive negative month for global equity markets in U.S. dollar terms. The MSCI World Index fell 1.4% during the month, which left it down 14.0% for the year. Emerging market equities suffered even greater declines in August, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index posting a loss of 8.0% in U.S. dollar terms. That brought the year-to-date return for emerging markets to a dismal -21.9%. <full report>
August 2008
Global equity markets suffered additional losses in the month of July, contributing to their double digit losses for the year. In U.S. dollar terms, the MSCI World Index fell 2.4% during the month, which left the index down 12.8% for the year. Emerging market equities also lagged during the month of July, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index posting a loss of 3.8% in U.S. dollar terms. <full report>
July 2008
The positive April-May returns of global equity markets were more than unwound in the month of June, with the MSCI World Index finishing the quarter down 1.7% in U.S. dollar terms and dropping the year-to-date return to -10.6%. Emerging market equities also declined during the quarter, falling a slight 0.9% and bringing the return of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to -11.8% for the year in U.S. dollars. <full report>
June 2008
Global equity markets posted additional gains in the month of May, adding to their strong performance thus far in the second quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, the MSCI World Index rose by about 1.5% during the month, which left the index up 6.9% for the quarter and down just 2.8% for the year. Emerging market equities also gained during the month of May, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index posting a return of 1.9% in U.S. dollar terms. That brought the quarter-to-date return for emerging markets to a very strong 10.1%, and left them down just 2.0% year to date. <full report>
May 2008
Global equity markets staged a strong rebound in April, after posting sharp losses in the first quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, the MSCI World Index rose by about 5% during the month, which erased roughly half of the loss posted during the first quarter. That left the index down by about 5% for the year to date. Emerging market equities performed even better than developed market equities in April, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index posting a strong gain of 8.1%. That brought the decline in that index to a loss of 3.8% for the year to date. <full report>
April 2008
Global equity markets sold off sharply in the first quarter, with the MSCI World Index down 9.1% in U.S. dollar terms. The fall in equity markets was accompanied by a sharp decline in the value of the U.S. dollar against the yen and many European currencies, making the global market decline even more severe in terms of those currencies. In contrast, the U.S. dollar rose in value against the currencies of some nations like Canada and South Korea whose economies were expected to bear some of the brunt of economic weakness in the U.S. <full report>
March 2008
Global equity markets posted nominal losses for February in U.S. dollar terms with the MSCI World Index falling by 0.6% for the month. Emerging market equities surged during February with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 7.4% in U.S. dollar terms. <full report>
Febraury 2008
Global equity markets plunged in the first month of the New Year, with the MSCI World Index falling by 7.6% in U.S. dollar terms and 5.7% in Canadian dollar terms, reflecting some modest weakening of the Canadian currency during the period. Market participants were rattled by a variety of economic reports suggesting that the U.S. economy was slipping into a recession that might also trigger pronounced economic weakness in major overseas economies. Markets and sectors that had performed well in 2007 were among the hardest hit in January, including Europe and the emerging markets or the energy and industrials sectors. Emerging market equities especially struggled with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index losing 12.5% in U.S. dollar terms and 10.6% in Canadian dollar terms for the month. <full report>
January 2008
During the fourth quarter, the MSCI World Index sagged 2.4% in U.S. dollar terms, dropping the return of the MSCI World Index to +9.0% for the year. Emerging market equities had a positive quarter, gaining 3.6% and bringing the strong return of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to +39.4% for the year in U.S. dollars. For non-U.S. investors, however, the investment returns from global equity markets in 2007 were much less favorable due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar versus other global currencies. For example, in Canadian Dollar terms, the MSCI World Index finished down 7.5% for the year and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index finished the year up a relatively disappointing 18.2%. <full report>