TRILOGY MARKET COMMENTS
March 2010
Global equity markets staged a modest recovery in February after starting off the first few weeks of 2010 with weak performance. The MSCI World index posted a positive total return of 1.4% in February, which left in down 2.8% for the year to date. The MSCI Emerging Markets posted a more lackluster return of 0.4% in February, which left the index down by 5.2% for the year to date.<full report>
February 2010
After many months of strong performance, global equity markets exhibited broad-based weakness in January with the MSCI World and Emerging Markets indices falling by 4.1% and 5.6% respectively. Three developments in particular appeared to trigger the pullback:<full report>
January 2010
Despite recent jitters in response to Dubai’s debt crisis and Greece’s fiscal problems, global equity markets posted solid returns in December with the MSCI World Index posting a total return of 2% for the month. That brought the total return for 2009 to 30% following a volatile ride with the index down 25% early in the year followed by a rise of 73% from the low hit in early March. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index also continued to perform well in December, posting a total return of 4% for the month and bringing its total return for the year to a robust 78%. <full report>
December 2009
Global equity markets generally posted robust gains in November, despite a month-end financial sector scare triggered by news that Dubai World would seek to restructure up to $59 billion of its debt. The MSCI World Index generated a total return of 4.1% in U.S. dollar terms in November, bringing its year-to-date rise to 27.7%. <full report>
November 2009
After rising in seven of the past eight months, global equity markets posted modest losses in October while commodities pulled back and the U.S. dollar rose. After rising more than 60% from its bottom in early March in U.S. dollar terms, the MSCI World Index fell by 1.8% in October but remains up nearly 23% for the year to date.<full report>
October 2009
Global equity markets have posted gains during five of the past six months, with the MSCI World Index gaining 4% in September and 17% for the quarter. The World Index has posted a two-quarter advance of 42%, which is the biggest two-quarter advance since the inception of the World Index in 1974. Even with that recovery, the index remains roughly 33% below its peak level in October 2007 after having plunged nearly 60% during the global financial crisis. <full report>
September 2009
Positive economic news flow continued to support global equity markets in August, although China’s market was a potentially important exception to the generally positive trend. The MSCI World Index posted a healthy gain of 4.1% in August, bringing the year-to-date gain to 20.1% in U.S. dollar terms. In contrast, after posting a year-to-date gain of more than 51% through July, the MSCI Emerging Markets index slipped 0.4% during August based largely on weakness in China and the financial sector.<full report>
August 2009
After faltering in June, global equity markets posted robust gains in July of 8.5% and 11.2% respectively in U.S. dollar terms for the MSCI World index and the MSCI Emerging Markets index. That brings total returns for the year to date of 15.4% and 51.3% respectively for the two indexes following last year’s sharp declines. Equity markets continued to be supported by positive developments in credit markets amid numerous signs that the global economy was beginning to recover from the sharp credit crunch that was triggered by Lehman’s bankruptcy last September.<full report>
July 2009
After posting exceptionally strong gains in April and May as fears of economic Armageddon faded, global equity markets experienced more choppy trading conditions in June and declined modestly. Many of the strongest financial market trends of recent months such as rising bond yields and commodity prices also were reversed in June, with resource-sensitive markets like Russia experiencing sharp corrections after posting stellar gains earlier this year.<full report>
June 2009
Global equity markets powered ahead in May with the MSCI All-Country World Index rising by about 10% during the month in U.S. dollar terms at the same time that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 17%. After a disastrous start to the year, the strong recovery in markets since mid-March now leaves the MSCI All-Country World Index up for the year to date by 9.8% and the MSCI Emerging Index up by 37.9%. Against widespread fears earlier this year that the world economy was headed for Great Depression II.<full report>
May 2009
Global equity markets enjoyed strong returns for the second consecutive month in April, with the MSCI World Index rising by 11.2% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 16.6%. Although trailing economic data from the first quarter generally continued to be grim, market participants have been encouraged by supportive government policy measures and evidence from around the world that the pace of economic contraction is abating.<full report>
April 2009
Looking back at the first quarter, it is difficult to recall a time when we have seen such deep and broad-based downward revisions to the outlook for global economic growth. In the wake of the Lehman bankruptcy last fall, the severe impairment of financial intermediation in general and trade finance in particular led to a sharp and immediate decline in global economic activity that appears to have continued through the first quarter of 2009. In response to such weakness, international forecasting agencies are now expecting...<full report>
March 2009
Economic data released in February has been stunningly grim and global equity markets have responded accordingly. The MSCI World index declined 10.2% in U.S. dollar terms during the month. That put the year-to-date return at minus 18.1% following abysmal performance in 2008.<full report>
February 2009
Global equity markets plunged once again in January in response to dismal reports on economic activity from around the world and increasing concerns about the solvency of major banks. It now appears that industrial activity across the world collapsed at an estimated annual pace of nearly...<full report>
January 2009
After plunging from mid-September to late-November in the wake of the Lehman bankruptcy shock, global equity markets finally showed signs of stabilizing in the last few weeks of 2008. In U.S. dollars, the MSCI World index finished the year nearly 20% above its low posted in November. But that represents small comfort... <full report>
December 2008
The global economic crisis continued in November as evidence of plunging consumer and business confidence mounted around the world. Most major equity markets posted new crisis lows during the month while long-term interest rates declined sharply as investors sought safety in government bonds. Commodity prices have remained under pressure in response to weakening demand in both developed and emerging market nations. <full report>
November 2008
The domino effects of the mid-September Lehman Brothers bankruptcy continued with a vengeance in October, as the crisis spread to European banks, commodity markets and currency markets. <full report>
October 2008
The third quarter was a tumultuous period for global equity markets, with the failure of Lehman Brothers in mid-September creating massive strains in global credit markets against the backdrop of faltering growth in most major economies. <full report>
September 2008
August marked the third consecutive negative month for global equity markets in U.S. dollar terms. The MSCI World Index fell 1.4% during the month, which left it down 14.0% for the year. Emerging market equities suffered even greater declines in August, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index posting a loss of 8.0% in U.S. dollar terms. That brought the year-to-date return for emerging markets to a dismal -21.9%. <full report>
August 2008
Global equity markets suffered additional losses in the month of July, contributing to their double digit losses for the year. In U.S. dollar terms, the MSCI World Index fell 2.4% during the month, which left the index down 12.8% for the year. Emerging market equities also lagged during the month of July, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index posting a loss of 3.8% in U.S. dollar terms. <full report>
July 2008
The positive April-May returns of global equity markets were more than unwound in the month of June, with the MSCI World Index finishing the quarter down 1.7% in U.S. dollar terms and dropping the year-to-date return to -10.6%. Emerging market equities also declined during the quarter, falling a slight 0.9% and bringing the return of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to -11.8% for the year in U.S. dollars. <full report>
June 2008
Global equity markets posted additional gains in the month of May, adding to their strong performance thus far in the second quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, the MSCI World Index rose by about 1.5% during the month, which left the index up 6.9% for the quarter and down just 2.8% for the year. Emerging market equities also gained during the month of May, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index posting a return of 1.9% in U.S. dollar terms. That brought the quarter-to-date return for emerging markets to a very strong 10.1%, and left them down just 2.0% year to date. <full report>
May 2008
Global equity markets staged a strong rebound in April, after posting sharp losses in the first quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, the MSCI World Index rose by about 5% during the month, which erased roughly half of the loss posted during the first quarter. That left the index down by about 5% for the year to date. Emerging market equities performed even better than developed market equities in April, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index posting a strong gain of 8.1%. That brought the decline in that index to a loss of 3.8% for the year to date. <full report>
April 2008
Global equity markets sold off sharply in the first quarter, with the MSCI World Index down 9.1% in U.S. dollar terms. The fall in equity markets was accompanied by a sharp decline in the value of the U.S. dollar against the yen and many European currencies, making the global market decline even more severe in terms of those currencies. In contrast, the U.S. dollar rose in value against the currencies of some nations like Canada and South Korea whose economies were expected to bear some of the brunt of economic weakness in the U.S. <full report>
March 2008
Global equity markets posted nominal losses for February in U.S. dollar terms with the MSCI World Index falling by 0.6% for the month. Emerging market equities surged during February with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 7.4% in U.S. dollar terms. <full report>
Febraury 2008
Global equity markets plunged in the first month of the New Year, with the MSCI World Index falling by 7.6% in U.S. dollar terms and 5.7% in Canadian dollar terms, reflecting some modest weakening of the Canadian currency during the period. Market participants were rattled by a variety of economic reports suggesting that the U.S. economy was slipping into a recession that might also trigger pronounced economic weakness in major overseas economies. Markets and sectors that had performed well in 2007 were among the hardest hit in January, including Europe and the emerging markets or the energy and industrials sectors. Emerging market equities especially struggled with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index losing 12.5% in U.S. dollar terms and 10.6% in Canadian dollar terms for the month. <full report>
January 2008
During the fourth quarter, the MSCI World Index sagged 2.4% in U.S. dollar terms, dropping the return of the MSCI World Index to +9.0% for the year. Emerging market equities had a positive quarter, gaining 3.6% and bringing the strong return of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to +39.4% for the year in U.S. dollars. For non-U.S. investors, however, the investment returns from global equity markets in 2007 were much less favorable due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar versus other global currencies. For example, in Canadian Dollar terms, the MSCI World Index finished down 7.5% for the year and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index finished the year up a relatively disappointing 18.2%. <full report>