TRILOGY MARKET COMMENTS
January 2009
After plunging from mid-September to late-November in the wake of the Lehman bankruptcy shock, global equity markets finally showed signs of stabilizing in the last few weeks of 2008. In U.S. dollars, the MSCI World index finished the year nearly 20% above its low posted in November. But that represents small comfort... <full report>
December 2008
The global economic crisis continued in November as evidence of plunging consumer and business confidence mounted around the world. Most major equity markets posted new crisis lows during the month while long-term interest rates declined sharply as investors sought safety in government bonds. Commodity prices have remained under pressure in response to weakening demand in both developed and emerging market nations. <full report>
November 2008
The domino effects of the mid-September Lehman Brothers bankruptcy continued with a vengeance in October, as the crisis spread to European banks, commodity markets and currency markets. <full report>
October 2008
The third quarter was a tumultuous period for global equity markets, with the failure of Lehman Brothers in mid-September creating massive strains in global credit markets against the backdrop of faltering growth in most major economies. <full report>
September 2008
August marked the third consecutive negative month for global equity markets in U.S. dollar terms. The MSCI World Index fell 1.4% during the month, which left it down 14.0% for the year. Emerging market equities suffered even greater declines in August, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index posting a loss of 8.0% in U.S. dollar terms. That brought the year-to-date return for emerging markets to a dismal -21.9%. <full report>
August 2008
Global equity markets suffered additional losses in the month of July, contributing to their double digit losses for the year. In U.S. dollar terms, the MSCI World Index fell 2.4% during the month, which left the index down 12.8% for the year. Emerging market equities also lagged during the month of July, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index posting a loss of 3.8% in U.S. dollar terms. <full report>
July 2008
The positive April-May returns of global equity markets were more than unwound in the month of June, with the MSCI World Index finishing the quarter down 1.7% in U.S. dollar terms and dropping the year-to-date return to -10.6%. Emerging market equities also declined during the quarter, falling a slight 0.9% and bringing the return of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to -11.8% for the year in U.S. dollars. <full report>
June 2008
Global equity markets posted additional gains in the month of May, adding to their strong performance thus far in the second quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, the MSCI World Index rose by about 1.5% during the month, which left the index up 6.9% for the quarter and down just 2.8% for the year. Emerging market equities also gained during the month of May, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index posting a return of 1.9% in U.S. dollar terms. That brought the quarter-to-date return for emerging markets to a very strong 10.1%, and left them down just 2.0% year to date. <full report>
May 2008
Global equity markets staged a strong rebound in April, after posting sharp losses in the first quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, the MSCI World Index rose by about 5% during the month, which erased roughly half of the loss posted during the first quarter. That left the index down by about 5% for the year to date. Emerging market equities performed even better than developed market equities in April, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index posting a strong gain of 8.1%. That brought the decline in that index to a loss of 3.8% for the year to date. <full report>
April 2008
Global equity markets sold off sharply in the first quarter, with the MSCI World Index down 9.1% in U.S. dollar terms. The fall in equity markets was accompanied by a sharp decline in the value of the U.S. dollar against the yen and many European currencies, making the global market decline even more severe in terms of those currencies. In contrast, the U.S. dollar rose in value against the currencies of some nations like Canada and South Korea whose economies were expected to bear some of the brunt of economic weakness in the U.S. <full report>
March 2008
Global equity markets posted nominal losses for February in U.S. dollar terms with the MSCI World Index falling by 0.6% for the month. Emerging market equities surged during February with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 7.4% in U.S. dollar terms. <full report>
Febraury 2008
Global equity markets plunged in the first month of the New Year, with the MSCI World Index falling by 7.6% in U.S. dollar terms and 5.7% in Canadian dollar terms, reflecting some modest weakening of the Canadian currency during the period. Market participants were rattled by a variety of economic reports suggesting that the U.S. economy was slipping into a recession that might also trigger pronounced economic weakness in major overseas economies. Markets and sectors that had performed well in 2007 were among the hardest hit in January, including Europe and the emerging markets or the energy and industrials sectors. Emerging market equities especially struggled with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index losing 12.5% in U.S. dollar terms and 10.6% in Canadian dollar terms for the month. <full report>
January 2008
During the fourth quarter, the MSCI World Index sagged 2.4% in U.S. dollar terms, dropping the return of the MSCI World Index to +9.0% for the year. Emerging market equities had a positive quarter, gaining 3.6% and bringing the strong return of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to +39.4% for the year in U.S. dollars. For non-U.S. investors, however, the investment returns from global equity markets in 2007 were much less favorable due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar versus other global currencies. For example, in Canadian Dollar terms, the MSCI World Index finished down 7.5% for the year and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index finished the year up a relatively disappointing 18.2%. <full report>